Uganda shilling and global market report – September 27, 2016


The Uganda shilling closed at 3385 on the US dollar, 4408 on the British pound, 3796 on the Euro, 50.95 on the Rupee, 33.42 on the Kenya shilling, 2564 on the Canadian dollar, 2595 on the Australian dollar and 1.56 on the Tanzania shilling.

I am not seeing a lot of movement on the Uganda shilling and it is becoming annoying.  We need this shilling to crash so that Ugandans can stop importing and export.  Besides, it is great for the people who remit money to Uganda.  Importers can buy local if the shilling crashes.  But my my, it is moving in a narrow range.  Its resistance is currently at 3375 on the US dollar and it has attempted for many weeks to break through this resistance.  Its key support is sitting at 4000 on the US dollar and we have brushed it recently.  If we drop below 4000 on the US dollar, our next real support will be at 4425 but I guess the Gods in Uganda are looking out without realising that a weak shilling is great for the economy.  By the way, the UGX is not traded by many big Forex brokers around the world so most of its value is set in Europe (read FTSE).


Coffee Arabica closed at $3.74 per kilo.

Coffee Robusta closed at $2.16 per kilo.

There is a bit of weakness on coffee but remember where we were this time last year.  Coffee has made gains and do not blame people taking out prices.  If you trade coffee, I would encourage you to hang in there and mix both types because remember that both are used in blends too.  Winter is here so we shall see more people consuming coffee.  Along this, you might want to know that the Millenials like fair trade so if you can trade with buyers who believe in fair trade, you could make good money.  These kids are willing to pay a higher price for their coffee as long as the farmers are paid a decent price.  Contact me privately to learn about Fair Trade Coffee from Uganda.  I do not solicit or get paid but have connections.  It is your money.

Gold is trading at $1327 per ounce.  It lost $10 and this means that the markets are recovering and we are not seeing flight into the safety of Gold.

Brent Crude Oil closed at $49.26 per barrel after losing $0.67 per barrel.  Brent has support at $44 per barrel but the way it is behaving, I would not be surprised if it falls more.

WTI Crude Oil closed at $44.67 per barrel after losing $1.26 per barrel.  Ladies and gentlemen, Oil is acting very bearish.  Short term investors might consider taking half off the table.  WTIC’s next support is sitting around $41 per barrel.  This would be a big drop if it were to follow its chart pattern from today.



Shanghai gained 18 points but it had crashed on Monday and I did not do the Monday report.  It does not look good at all.  You can see the chart for yourself.  The SSEC is bearish.


Australia index lost 25 points.  It is still not solidly bearish as it put in 8 days of closing at decent levels.  I would not short it or go long but would hold all positions. If you twisted my arm, I would short it with caution though.

Tokyo gained 139 points and closed on a good positive candle.  Only thing is the Nikkei moves so eratically one cannot know if it is going or coming.  This index is a widow maker.  It is at 16684 points now.  I would not go long until it breaks above 17100.  I would not short it till it closes under 16100 because there is something at both these levels which will make it break up or break down.


Frankfurt lost 32 points.  It is in bear territory but still not a solid short.

Paris lost 9 points and it also is not a solid short.

London lost 10 points and is forming a triple top meaning that it could fall but the FTSE has managed to make everyone squirm including professionals.  I would be very very careful with this one.  In fact the fact that it formed a triple top means it is shortable.  However, look at how it bounced off the 50 day MA and closed a hair above it with some nice candles from last week.  If you wanna bet your shirt, go long but I would stay out.  Bets on this one are on the long side.

North America:

Toronto lost 61 points and has gone into bear territory. It had formed a triple top so this is not surprising but the problem is that the support is a bit low.  The TSX could be a nice play for a short.

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 133 points but did not break resistance so it is bearish.  This is a bit depressing.

Standard and Poor gained 14 points but did not break through resistance.

NASDAQ gained 48 points.  The COMPQ might lead its bigger cousins to go up.  Unreal.  It is no longer catching pneumonia when the other 3 sneeze.  Possible for a Long but as long as the other 3 do not go in that direction, I would hold all positions.


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Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

Twitter: @mlnangalama

I have an IT, business background and own shares in oil.

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