Business

Uganda shilling and global market report – October 25, 2016

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The Uganda shilling closed at 3459 on the US dollar. Something I am noticing which is a bit troubling. Usually around this time, the shilling appreciates as people send money home for their families and then some start travelling home in preparation for December.

There are many Ugandans abroad who get 2 months off work for leave. The shilling is not reflecting this. In fact it is reflecting the opposite. It has now formed firm resistance at 3425 with 3450 being minor. Its support is really 3500.

This is going to hurt many importers in Uganda but I am smiling as I am an exporter into Uganda. If the shilling keeps depreciating, Uganda is gonna experience major financial pain.

Gold is at $1270 and gained $8 per ounce. A bit of flight into safety here but nothing alarming.

Brent Crude Oil had a bad day. Very bad day.  It shed $1.15 and closed at $50.29 per barrel. It is not so much that it dropped but the chart is bearish. I have been saying to short it. Those who read saw my earlier report on oil. If you missed it, there is a replay. Some OPEC countries do not want to pull out of the cut back.

Did you know that Canada and USA are not in OPEC and have huge oil deposits with dormant rigs. For every cut back, the gringos and cannucks will just open up rigs.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Shanghai gained 4 points and the SSEC is still not closing above resistance but it is gonna break above and walk gracefully to the North. Do not short it.

Australia stopped falling and gained 34 points. The AORD is very strongly bullish and the minor pull backs are likely due to profit taking.

Tokyo gained 131 points. So it looks like the Nikkei widow maker is seriously bullish. The setup has been phenomenal. I would sell some calls.

Frankfurt lost 4 points and looks like it is topping out a bit being that it is hesitating at a resistance level but the DAX defies. I call a bull for this one. Although selling some puts at this level could be profitable but I would not bail out of long positions. Probably 50% to book in profits.

Paris lost 12 points. I swear France is related to Germany! The CAC formed the same pattern as Frankfurt.

London gained 31 points but the FTSE still looks tired. This is one I would watch on the side and really not liquidate anything yet.

Toronto lost 52 points. The TSX is iffy so watch your money. Looks like a candidate for selling puts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 54 points. We will see the INDU fly or crash after the elections. I would wait.

Standard and Poor lost 8 points. The MACD is turning bullish but still wait after the elections.

Nasdaq lost 26 points but is bullish. It will fly after the elections. Christmas sales of gadgets and the COMPQ is tech heavy.

GLOBAL NEWS

Same old, same old. People are killing others. One would think they are cannibals. Why kill what you are not going to eat?

Check us out at www.theinsider.ug/category/world-news/#.WA_c7srMbqA

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Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

Twitter: @mlnangalama

I have an IT and business background.

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