Uganda shilling and global market report – October 11, 2016


The Uganda shilling closed at 3419 on the US dollar, 4184 on the British pound, 3781 on the Euro, 51.17 on the Rupee, 33.76 on the Kenyan shilling, 2583 on the Canadian dollar, 2581 on the Australian dollar and 1.56 on the Tanzania shilling.  Best play with the UGX is on the USD.  The other currencies are key but the money is on the US dollar.  The shilling is depreciating slowly and ever slowly.  Those who have been following it will remember that this time in 2015 it was around 2500 on the US dollar.  A weak shilling is awesome though.  It means we can export a lot and import less.

Coffee Arabica closed at $3.75 per kilo.

Coffee Robusta closed at $2.24 per kilo.  What what?  Nice play on Robusta.  Great move.  Very bullish on this one but even Arabica since winter is here and we all need our kawa.  Always trade both though.

Gold is at $1255 after losing $4 per ounce.  As long as the markets hold up, gold will trade low.

Brent Crude Oil closed at $52.56 after losing $0.39 per barrel.  I had updated in daytime that it was bullish.  The daily chart is still more bullish despite bridging the resistance in the area of $53 per barrel.  I would be very careful shorting it at this level because it is very strong and we are seeing “irrational exhuberance”.  I also would not buy it till it returns to the $51 neighbourhood (support) and still wait till it pulls back from this level.  Oil is a good play now.

WTI Crude Oil closed at $50.79 after losing $0.56 per barrel.  Same chart pattern as Brent.  People who trade oil and jump all over Asia trading and Europe need to understand that USA and Canada are the fat lady who sings to say it is over.


OPEC and Russia have agreed to cut back oil production to protect what we call an oligopoly.  Students of Economics know that Oligopolies never last.  In fact OPEC had agreed a while back to let the markets decide.  There are many rigs in USA and Canada which are dormant and both countries are not in OPEC.  Then we have IRAN factor which can pump out so much oil you would go easy and after the sanctions, Iran needs to download all the crude they were storing up and open up their dormant rigs. You can check some of the oil reports I have shared on this website and on my blog.  The chart below is OPEC members.


Take a look at the following and see why OPEC cutting back 200,000 barrels per day is insignificant.

topoilexporters oilcountriestop



Shanghai lost gained 17 points and it was a beautiful play.  It is above the 50 day and 200 day moving averages (MA) but has a gap down to close and this is resistance but the SSEC is agile in its movement so we should consider it bullish.

Australia index gained 7 points but is forming a bearish pattern and looking like a good short right now.  It is a hair above its 50 day MA.  I would watch it this week and the minute it closes under the 50 day MA, I would short it.

Tokyo gained 165 points and it is bullish.  The Nikkei is trading in tiny little movements (almost sporadic) so I would watch it carefully.


Frankfurt lost 47 points but has a huge white candle from last week and the pattern is pointing north.

Paris lost 26 points forming a similar pattern to the DAX above.

London lost 27 points but heading north with no roadblocks in sight.

North America:

Toronto lost 17 points and it really is looking bearish despite oil going up.  Actually, the TSX is going down.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 200 points.  The INDU is not looking very hot.

Standard and Poor lost 27 points.  Ouch!  We are heading south.

NASDAQ lost 82 points closing at the 50 day MA which was its support but given how the three above acted, the COMPQ is heading down.


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Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

Twitter: @mlnangalama

I have an IT and business background and decades of trading.

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