The Uganda shilling closed at 3350 on the US dollar, 4870 on the British pound, 3805 on the Euro, 50.26 on the Rupee, 33.14 on the Kenyan shilling, 2626 on the Canadian dollar (can you see the smile), 2497 on the Australian dollar and 1.53 on the Tanzania shilling.
The shilling is holding up rather strong. Do not even look at where it was a year ago.
We will likely see weakness at the end of the month when all the importers in Uganda have to pay in US dollars.
The resistance for the Uganda shilling is now sitting at 3325 so if we break through it, the shilling might return to 3300 (key word is might). Its support remains at 3375 and if we tank through it, we will likely see 3400.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.36 per kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $1.90 per kilo.
I love the play on Arabica. That one can shake out weak hands but always bounces up. Robusta tends to make small moves. If you are a coffee exporter, please mix your shipments to include both. Arabica has jumped up a lot over the last week and those who got shook out missed the key factor. Arabica rules. Not only because we grow it in the Mt. Elgon area but because it is also grown in Latin America.
Gold is trending at $1244 per ounce and lost only $0.74 per ounce. Nothing to write home about.
Oil (Brent) – Beautiful. What was that? It gained $0.95 per barrel and closed at $51.47. This calls for a celebration.
Just notice the oil play. The chart is a work of great art.
Shanghai gained 2 points and closed at exactly its resistance of the 50 day moving average (MA). The $SSEC has been forming a great cup and one of these days it better rise up or we shall suffocate from holding our breath.
Hong Kong gained 4 points. Talk about boring. I bet the $HKDOW is waiting for Shanghai to exhale. Boring indeed.
Tokyo gained 95 points. However, its chart is looking like, do I go up or down? Seriously, 95 points on the $NIKK (Nikkei) is nothing at all. This index can move up to 1000 points in one day. Things which cause heart attacks.
Frankfurt gained 167 points and way above its 200 day MA. This $DAX shook out some weak hands. We have been warning about bailing out or shorting.
Paris gained 52 points and cross the resistance at the 200 day MA. It is closing under it but remember when Frankfurt sneezes, the $CAC gets bronchitis.
London put on a great show. Not only did it close above the resistance of the 200 MA (has held above it) but it gained 11 points. It still faces some negativity from last week but then you just go ahead and watch people short this spike and they will be hurt. The BREXI is weighing on many professional traders. UK exiting EU. Do not hold your breath for if you do, you might suffocate.
Toronto gained 89 points. Well, the $TSX is oil loaded so when oil goes up, Toronto goes up.
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18 points. This one is a bit interesting. We know that the $INDU does not depend on only oil but many other industries. It might be good for shorting as it seems to be topping out. Might is the key word. I would certainly take 50% off the table now (profits I mean).
Standard and Poor gained 3 points and its chart is looking better than the one for the DOW but not as cute as Toronto.
NASDAQ lost 7 points but its chart is not ugly at all.
We are facing a bull market (more buyers than sellers) and this is not a market to sell short unless you are a professional and can watch the charts hourly. This is the kind of market that can turn against you if you lose focus. It might also be driven by the Short Squeeze where people who shorted are buying back to pay their brokers. You can read about market volatility on a previous article: http://www.theinsider.ug/primer-on-stock-market-turbulence/
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Martha Leah Nangalama
The writer has an IT and business background