My forex company contact told me that his company in Calgary Canada told me that they do not deal in UGX. So I asked him to help me with the Yuan. He told me that the Yuan is controlled and they not work that way. The way I can read the Uganda shilling and the Yuan even shocks me. If my dealer could even open up to these two currencies, I would not be writing. The UGX trades heavily in Europe but not in North America. The Yuan is a powerhouse but controlled so most dealers stay away from low trading currencies or currencies which are state controlled.
The Uganda shilling ends the month at the level I had predicted. UGX closed at 3375 on the US dollar, 4487 on the British pound, 3772 on the Euro, 50.64 on the Rupee, 33.29 on the Kenyan shilling, 2589 on the Canadian dollar, 2565 on the Australian dollar and 1.55 on the Tanzania shilling.
I normally live and breathe movement. The Uganda shilling has been trading in a very narrow range. When I first started trading it, it was around 2500 on the US dollar and barely above 2000 on the Canadian dollar and the Kenyan shilling was always steady at 33. I should not even lament about UGX trading in the 3375 area because it did even worse where it even kissed 3400 but most of us remember the days of 2500 so then what gives?
The debt level. Uganda spends 40+% of its GDP servicing debt.
Uganda exports $2.4 billion in goods and services but imports $6 billion.
Uganda pays their best brains so very little that they end up with brain drain.
Uganda is well known for being a country of thieves to the point that even NGOs have been attacked and kicked out when they used to be among the best employers.
Uganda’s political situation and the rampant theft has forced some companies to bail out of there. Just read up on British Airways and Uchumi.
Uganda was very confident about oil being their saviour but the geniuses did not ever read about the cyclical damage in oil? The country does not have a refinery and even now the oil pipeline is a pipe dream.
Uganda’s growth has been downgraded (learn about down grades) to where it is junk status.
Uganda is all over the world with people being shot dead, journalists being attacked daily, opposition being arrested and incarcerated. Tourism in Uganda is a money maker but it fell 24% in 2015 and had fallen 22% in 2014. Perhaps the country can rethink using terrorism alerts and tear gas? Just an idea.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.55 per kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $2.01 per kilo.
Uganda could make a lot of money with coffee but who even runs that shop of intentional trade? Selective opportunities for International trade leaves out the majority. The only standing cooperative is BCU (Bugisu Cooperative Union, #BugisuProud) and you should ask why it is still standing when all the other cooperatives shut down.
Gold is at 1350 per ounce and gained 14 per ounce. Leah scratches the head. Do I wanna look at the markets? Gold predicts a lot so I bet they fell.
Oil (Brent Crude) was terribly boring. A movement of $0.11 per barrel? This thing is going down though.
Shanghai fell by 15 points and it looks bearish but I love my chop sticks and the way the $SSEC bounced off the 50 day moving average (MA) still tells me that it could squeeze some more pain. I would stay on the side and maybe also sell half of my holdings at this level and watch the other half ride the wave.
Hong Kong – some fool woke up Hong Kong. This index hardly moves and managed to shed 6 points. The $HKDOW does not move violently so each point lost or gained forms a chart.
Tokyo gained 92 points. But it has been forming a bearish pattern so I would be careful.
Frankfurt gained 63 points. It is topping out though. Ich liebe dich simply for defying the odds. We are with you in grieving.
Paris gained 19 points. Mais vous savez sûrement que j’aime la France!
London gained 3 points but it is also topping out and looking great for a short.
Toronto gained 31 points and it is very bullish.
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 24 points which would normally mean nothing but it formed a bearish pattern. It had climbed up a lot so we always expect profit taking. Despite this pull back, I would not jump in and short this index.
Standard and Poor gained 4 points so despite the little fall on the Dow, we are still in a bull market.
Nasdaq gained 7 points and it is on fire. Meaning heading north.
GLOBAL NEWS can always be found on www.theinsider.ug or my blog and all social media.
Martha Leah Nangalama
The writer has a background in IT and Business from the University of Toronto and Trent University (Canada)