Uganda shilling and global market report – August 19, 2016


The Uganda shilling closed at 3363 on the US dollar, 4397 on the British pound, 3810 on the Euro, 50.09 on the Rupee, 33.20 on the Kenyan shilling, 2613 on the Canadian dollar, 2565 on the Australian dollar and 1.54 on the Tanzania shilling.

The IMF report on Uganda debt was scathing and yet the shilling is stable.  We are now looking at 3350 for resistance and 3375 for support.  The minute we break above the resistance, our next level will be 3350.  On the support side, we are facing 3375 which is not a big deal but once we crash through it, we will head for 3400.  How many of you even remember when the shilling crashed to 3480?  Know your charts and keep an eye.

Coffee Arabica closed at $3.49 per kilo.

Coffee Robusta closed at $2.01 per kilo.

Nice play on coffee.  Winter is around the corner so you should all expect coffee to pick up.  It has been very steady though and only loses a little bit which is nothing to write home about.  I still feel strongly that coffee exporters need to mix the two types.  If you have a roasting house, then import every type of coffee and blend.  Many coffee places buy blends because it is cheaper but not too cheap.  Starbucks and Tim Hortons make a killing on coffee and so does MacDonald.  None of their coffees is one type.  Blend.

Gold lost $9 and closed at $1341 per ounce.  AWESOME.  This means the markets did well and there was no flight into gold.

Brent Crude oil did not move and it is sitting at $50.85 per barrel.  After the rise, profit taking is expected but it still has resistance in the neighbourhood of $53 so I would be careful.  It is actually shaping up for a short but do not do it until it backs off from that resistance at $53.  If you like long, just wait a bit because you would be buying high and likely to sell low.  The way its chart is looking, it will likely go higher after some pull back.

WTI Crude Oil also hardly moved and it is sitting at $49.11 per barrel.  Looks very bullish though.  It has resistance around $52.



Shanghai gained 4 points but still looks bullish and definitely not a short.

Hong Kong lost 3 points and it is ripe for shorting big time. It does have support though so only short it if you can watch the index constantly because it could move against you.

Tokyo gained 60 points.  Nonsense because the Nikkei can move up to 1500 points in one day.  Heart attacks! Maybe someone should send a memo to Tokyo and tell them we only make money on serious movements.


Frankfurt fell by 59 points.  Reason you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.  Not so fast. It has a lot of support and this one could squeeze weak hands.  Actually, the DAX is approaching support and getting ripe for Long.

Paris did worse. The CAC lost 36 points but it closed under its 200 MA (Moving Average) and set up a short pattern but something is puzzling.  It has support from last week and yet fell to this point.  I would stay out of Paris.

London lost 10 points and at this point, the FTSE is not a good short or long unless you have money to spare.

North America:

Toronto lost 8 points and it is okay for either way (Long or Short) but I would actually avoid the TSX.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 45 points and see above.

Standard and Poor lost 3 points and the same advice remains as its cousins.  We are really only seeing tiny profit taking.

NASDAQ lost 2 points.  Quelle surprise!


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Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

I have no financial training.  I have an IT and Business background.  All my opinions are only mine.

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