Uganda shilling and global market report – Aug 1, 2016


The Uganda shilling closed at 3383 on the US dollar, 4460 on the British Pound, 3778 on the Euro, 50.68 on the Rupee, 33.36 on the Kenyan shilling, 2578 on the Canadian dollar (should have sent mom money last month), 2550 on the Australian dollar and 1.55 on the Tanzania shilling.

The Uganda shilling has been very stable.  I had set its support at 3475 and its resistance at 3350. Today it closes at 3383 which means that our support now moves to 3400 and our resistance now becomes 3375 on the US dollar.  This is month end July and first week of August, 2016 which kicks in payments.  Given that Uganda imports $6 billion and exports $2.4 billion, the money is on import.  Supply / Demand.

There are many factors affecting the Uganda shilling.  READ.  The current political situation is likely one of the biggest ones.

Uganda relies on Ugandans in the diaspora who send up to $1 billion home each year.

Uganda relies on tourism.  In 2015 and 2014, the revenue fell by 20%+.

Uganda relies on the army going into UN peace keeping missions.  Money is being cut off.

Uganda has an image problem.  The country is all over media with police or army killing people.  This issue must be addressed because investors, donors and tourists will stay away for as long as these daily frequently broadcasted images and videos of brutality remain the face of the country.

Coffee Arabica closed at $3.64 per kilo.

Coffee Robusta closed at $2.23 per kilo.

I like the numbers on coffee. Ugandan exporters who have been paying attention know that we must mix shipments. Arabica holds its own but Robusta is good too.  Most coffee importers have their own roasting houses and many do blending.  Do when you rely on one type, you lose out.  Mix  and blend.

GOLD is trading at $1,353 per ounce and gained $3 per ounce during the day.

OIL (Brent crude) lost a dollar and closed at $42.23 per barrel.  It is going down big time.  Oil fell through its support (50 day moving average – MA).  Brent Crude has no support in site until it gets to the neighbourhood of $36 per barrel.  Actually, it is looking awesome for shorting.



Shanghai lost 26 points.  The $SSEC has been resilient but it fell hard.  Touched its 50 day MA, bounced a hair and closed above its support.  But this one is going down and looking like a good short.

Hong Kong gained 3 points but since mainland rules and Shanghai going down, Hong Kong will dive.  This index is actually the one I would short.  It is topping out and could make some one rich.

Tokyo gained 67 points and the Nikkei is perfect for shorting this week.


Frankfurt lost 7 points.  The $DAX is trying hard.  It has done a triple top and the problem with this chart formation is when keeps squeezing out shorters.  I would personally short this index and would not go long because there is a lot going on in Germany and no idea who will attack that country next.  Do not touchie!

Paris lost 31 points. The $CAC tends to follow Frankfurt so as much as looks good for shorting, I would follow the advice on Frankfurt.

London lost 24 points.  The $FTSE has finally set up a perfect pattern for being shorted.  On this one, I am very sure that shorting it now is a money maker.  London brought the world to its knees with #Brexit and now it is payback time.  People lost billions on this thing.  If only they could read my business column.  I swear London is gonna pay back.


North America:

Toronto gained 31 points and it is a none issue for the moment.  If you are a risk taker, bet some money on the $TSX as a short seller because it is struggling to go up. Toronto is oil heavy.  Oil is going down.  Toronto is trying to defy gravity.  So this one is a risk play but looking hot to short.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 28 points and is sitting in a perfect short position.  There is only one small problem.  It has support so it could freak people out and pull off a short squeeze.  The $INDU is still closing bove its 200 MA and this is a bit tricky because this week it could bounce off that line and move higher.  But we have play room before we hit that line.  Should the Indu crash through that line, then all the money makers will be on the short side.

Standard and Poor acted like the DOW.  It lost 3 points while topping out.  So it becomes a candidate for shorting but read above on the Dow Industrial Average.

Nasdaq gained 22 points and defied its 3 North American cousins.  As if it finally learned that when the others sneeze, the $COMPQ must not get bronchitis.  Shaaaaa!


People are still killing people.  No idea what has happened to humanity.

USA thinks that Putin is a bad man and Russia is rumoured to have hacked into the Dems and with the Tramp praising Putin, we are totally getting screwed royally.

Meanwhile in #SouthSudan, there is a war and people are dying.  I even heard that there was cholera there.  People should just boil water.

In Uganda, a video which has gone viral shows a police truck knocking someone down and he gets kicked and then the people in power apologize for it.  No idea what is going on in that country.

Turkey (#Erdogan) is a gift that keeps giving.  Hundreds of thousands of people arrested post #TurkeyCoup.

Germany is facing a backlash for having accepted 1 million Syrian refugees.  I hear terrorists sneaked in and are hitting Germany a lot.

France has had its share of attacks too for telling the world “If you cannot afford food, just go buy cake”.  “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”.  And there is nothing wrong with this phrase by the way.  If you cannot pay for school lunches for your kids, just buy a food flask and put cake in it.

Venezuela is big probs.  Brazil is no different. Angola, Nigeria, Zimbabwe are apparently broke.  Who even cares?

Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

Whatsapp +15068716371

My opinions do not reflect the Editors at The Insider or any company or organisation I am affiliated with. I write for fun.  Solid IT and Business Background.

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