The Uganda shilling closed at 3363 on the US dollar, 4771 on the British pound, 3692 on the Euro, 33 even on the Kenyan shilling and 2502 on the Canadian dollar. The UGX is being very stable. This is good. However, we need it to get stronger and at least touch the 3250 (its resistance) and then break through it so that the importers do not have to suffer.
On the issue of imports and exports for those who missed my previous articles. A strong shilling encourages imports. A week shilling encourages exports. So as much as the shilling may be in the dumps right now, smart exporters from Uganda would use this as an opportunity. When the shilling is strong, it is bad for exporters but wonderful for importers. WAIT..sorry, Uganda exports $2.4 billion and imports $6 billion per year. Never mind.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.10 per kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $1.61 per kilo.
Coffee is interesting. Arabica will always be ahead of Robusta. The people in Uganda who export Arabica make a killing in profits. However, since there are millions and millions of people in the world who do not know the difference between the two types, I would start with exporting Robusta since it is so much more easily available and affordable but once you make your money, move up a notch.
Gold closed at $1255 after losing $8.70 per ounce. This is miniscule. Gold can move a lot more but you have to understand that there is always profit taking and the tiny pull backs in gold are really some people taking some profits off the table.
Oil (Brent Crude Oil) pulled back a bit ($1.22 per barrel) and closed at $39.54. It has been on a tear though so naturally people bank their profits (some of them). When I was an active trader, some gurus used to tell us to make some money, take half off the table and let the other half run. The chart still presents a positive picture of moving up until we hit the 200 day moving average (our resistance) and this will happen when we hit the neighbourhood of $47 a barrel.
OPEC, USA and other exporters are working hard to help the price of oil recover. By this time, Iran is pumping out oil since the sanctions so all the fear has been priced in. Did you people know that Saudi Arabia’s break even cost is something like only $9 a barrel! The lowest among all oil producers. Other countries face anywhere between $25 – $65 a barrel. Ouch!
Shanghai gained 4 points but it did something that is not very nice. It was trying to break through a negative, resistance area and today it signaled that it cannot make it. Expect the $SSEC to now fall. Gently though.
Hong Kong – oh well. When Shanghai sneezes, Hong Kong catches pneumonia. The $HKDOW lost 3 points but its chart signals a fall.
Tokyo did not manage to break through its resistance, the 50 day moving average and it is also on its way down. The $NIKK lost 128 points and this is nothing for that index. This one can drop very hard even 900+ points in a day. Things which give traders heart attacks.
Frankfurt lost 86 points. The $DAX even fell through its support (50 day moving average) but managed to recover and close just above it. The chart shows that it will likely crash through its support this week and then down we go.
Paris lost 38 points but did not get anywhere close to its current support (50 day moving average). The $CAC has very strong blood with Frankfurt and even the chart now shows that it will likely fall too. How far? No idea but usually to the support level and it is still sitting comfortable above that blue line.
London lost 57 points but it is so far above its support (50 day moving average) that it has enough room to fall and move back up without crashing through its support. The $FTSE chart is the one for today.
Toronto 73 points. Minor. We are talking about the $TSX which can fall or rise 300-500 points. Profit taking. The chart looks great. The TSX is oil heavy so when oil is doing well, we celebrate in Toronto.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 110 points but formed a similar pattern to Toronto. The $Indu is also oil heavy but has many other industries in it so Oil does not control it as much as Toronto.
Standard and Poor lost 23 points. This is a big one for the $SPX. In fact, being the signal for all the other markets and its chart today showing an upcoming fall, I would not buy now as we will have a pull back this week.
NASDAQ lost 59 points and is crawling towards its support line (50 day moving average). This is not surprising. When the S&P sneezes, the NAS catches a cold and should the DOW fall, the Nasdaq falls. The thing with the Nasdaq being tech heavy, all we need to do is buy more gadgets. I have done my part (each family member has a smart phone and a laptop). We can buy more and mother’s day will soon be upon us.
Trump is winning in many Jesusland states.
Trudeau will meet Obama soon. We love both of them (if you do not, then you just have nuggu).
Kim Kardashian’s social media account was not hacked by any member of her family.
Facebook is going to pay millions of dollars for some privacy bridge in the EU.
Israel is still at logger heads with Palestine.
Iran has not only released a lot of barrels of crude oil on the market but it will also be launching missiles for tests.
Syria has lost more than $368 billion dollars since the war first started. Oh my. I guess life presidencies cost a lot of money to a country.
The ISIS’ ‘minister of war’ Abu Omar al-Shishani might have been killed.
The Peace Deal in South Sudan – forget about it. They are still killing and maiming.
Martha Leah Nangalama
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