The Uganda shilling is holding its own. This is very encouraging given that we are in unsure territory here. Might have to do something with Standard and Poor giving Uganda a B/B rating of stable though so Europe is not dumping our currency.
The shilling closed at 3465 on the US dollar, 4971 on the British pound, 3765 on the Euro, 33.88 on the Kenyan shilling and 2454 on the Canadian dollar.
Coffee Arabica – no change.
Coffee Robusta – no change.
Gold closed at 1120 per ounce. Gold is creeping up slowly. Ever so slowly but it looks like some people are hedging into gold. Well the way the markets are acting, who can blame them for flying into a solid tangible investment.
Oil fell a $2.03 and closed at $30.11 a barrel. The chart still looks good though. Today’s fall was contained within the body of yesterday’s rise so we are doing pretty good. This was likely due to profit taking since Oil had risen quite a lot in the last 2 days of trading. Imagine the people who bought it at $27 a barrel would have to be greedy not to take profit when it hit $32 a barrel. There are many day traders and short term traders (1-3 days) who need the money and know to get out before the tide turns against them.
Shanghai – oh my, I should never have looked. This hurts too much. [chart of the day]. Shanghai just went belly down. It dropped 6.42% (189 points) finishing at 2750. What an ugly chart. The last 5 days of trading this thing was giving so much promise and today it just crashed through all the support and fell so hard like it was following gravity.
Hong Kong was unchanged. This is the second day in a row. Are they celebrating Chinese New Year before mainland China or what is this? We can look on the bright side. If Shanghai crashes and Hong Kong does not get fever, all is good.
Tokyo fell quite a lot. It lost 2.35% (402 points) closing at 16709. I am thinking that it caught the flu after Shanghai sneezed. Its chart is not bad though as it did not close below the level of 2 days of trading ago.
Frankfurt is looking really good. It went up 0.89% (87 points) finishing the day at 9823.
Paris opened much lower than yesterday but ended up on the positive side with a gain of 1.05% (45 points) finishing the day at 4357.
London did something I will explain one of these days (the hammer). It fell very hard then pulled back to end up positively by 0.59% (34 points) finishing at 5911.
Toronto is going up. It gained just a little bit 1.55% (188 points) finishing at 12331. Oil is turning belly up, TSX will go up.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (New York) rose 1.78% (282 points) closing at 16167 signalling more up movement.
Standard and Poor Index rose 1.41% (27 points) closing at 16167. The only thing with this one is the rise is not certain to last since today’s rise is held in the body of yesterday’s close which was negative. The S&P kind of rules the motion in markets. at the same time when one looks at its chart, it is still hanging on the positive side despite yesterday’s negative close.
NASDAQ rose 1.09% (49 points) finishing at 4568. It closed within the body of yesterday’s bad candle so I would stay out if I were a trader.
Those who do not follow the global news I share may have missed the fact that envoys from Iran are on their way to Europe this week to negotiate trade contracts. The red carpet will be laid out. In fact, Italy has been covering all the statues of their naked women and men. Walalala.
Just imagine that after the sanctions were lifted off Iran, we are looking at another 500,000 minimum barrels of oil being pumped onto the market. And by the way, they can even put out up to one million barrels daily.
How will Uganda deal with this over supply? Uganda is like a sardine in an ocean full of big sharks and sharks eat small fish. Your projected production of 60,000 barrels daily pales when you face giants like Russia (which is building your refinery, when?), Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, USA and Canada. Then you have North Africa and Venezuela plus many other big players. These suppliers have developed economies of scale that Uganda does not have. They can pump out so much oil daily and make you pale compared to them.
Martha Leah Nangalama
The writer is an IT analyst for an oil company and has experience trading stocks, options and forex.
All my opinions are mine and mine alone. They do not reflect on my employer or any organisation I am affiliated with.