The markets are kind of recovering but I would not write home about this. Let us look at the shilling first before the commodities and indices globally.
The Uganda shilling closed at 3478 on the US dollar, 5012 on the British pound, 3779 on the Euro and 34 on the Kenyan shilling. Wait, we knew the shilling was dropping against
International currencies but the momentum of it dropping against one of their leading EAC trading partners, Kenya might not seem like a lot.
Those who have been following my posts on the Uganda shilling vs. Kenyan shilling know that something is starting to happen.
The KE shilling has been steady but hey, if you want to take that pipeline through Tanzania or South Sudan, I do not have any analytics on it. Bottom line, you are going to pay a lot more for your imports.
Given that Uganda is a big commodities exporter, we need to look at the main one. Obviously because your other major one is still sitting in the ground.
No movement on coffee at all. This is really good. Given how commodity prices are dropping, no movement is good news. It is almost like when you wait by your phone to get a phone call from your family and relatives and no one calls, it means good.
Gold is at $1080 an ounce. This one trades 24 by 7 though so please keep that in mind. It has been so stable I call it boring because we need some movement up or down but thank heaven for Gold for stability.
Brent Crude Oil is still trading in after markets. It is at $30.98 per barrel as I type this. WTI Oil is at $31.20. One Ugandan had asked me the difference between Brent and Crude. Not much. They usually move in synch with a disparity of $0.05 – $0.50 in between. Brent involves blending a lot more crude oils to make one and WTF (Crude) does not blend as much but basically the oil price to worry about is the Brent.
Shanghai closed up by 1.97% positive finishing at 3008. It formed a nice white candle for positive results meaning things are looking up. In fact it had hit the last time in September 2014 when it touched that price. Who even remembers September 2014? I would not throw money at it yet.
Hong Kong is trying and it looks like it could rise out of this mess. It is where I would put my money.
Tokyo makes no sense. Yesterday it looked fantabulous then today it dropped. Who scared the Nikkei? It lost 2.68% and closed lower than the closing of yesterday. We need to pay attention to this one. The chart is looking suspicious but still a bit promising. Do not bet your money.
Frankfurt dropped like the sky was falling. It closed 1.67% ending at 9794.
Which is heart breaking because it dropped well before the price of yesterday which had looked promising except today it closes lower.
The chart looks like it might recover but you know with those issues of emissions and low profits, anything is a guess. I would not bet any money though. This can turn violent.
Paris dropped 1.80%. What a beautiful chart though. It dropped so hard then pulled back when it touched the last time it had dropped that low last year.
London fell 0.72% and it looks like it is curving upwards. Generally a graph or chart shows selling abating or buying increasing which in this case we see on all the charts. The sellers are done selling.
The buyers are getting in but the equilibrium is still on the selling side so watch your money because all we need is another geo-political factor then we resume the selling.
If you do not follow the global news I share, big risk.
CANADA AND USA:
Toronto was positive.
Dow Jones was positive — CHART ATTACHED. Notice how the white candle is in the body of the red candle.
This means that the rise today is not sustainable. On the other hand, a rising tide lifts up all the boats and ships and it looks like there is a rising tide so the DOW forming this pattern might mean nothing at all negative.
Except that those who read chart patterns know that it is still a way off before the real rise.
NASDAQ was up too. Rising tides. The pattern does look like the rise will not last though. I would be very careful buying in this market or shorting in this market.
Martha Leah Nangalama