For those who missed the report from 9,Mar.2016, you can find it on my blog. I had shared it on Linkedin, Google+, Facebook and Twitter. I had technical issues. Moncton, Canada was not connecting to the site in Uganda. Whenever you see this report missing, check my blog. http://nangalama.blogspot.ca/2016/03/wed-mar-9-2016-uganda-shilling-and.html
Today the shilling closed at 3345 on the US dollar, 4775 on the British pound, 3439 on the Euro, 33 on the Kenyan shilling and 2507 on the Canadian dollar.
The shilling is not making any aggressive movements and this is good. However, it is way too low compared to a year ago where it was trading around 2500 on the US dollar and 2000 on the Canadian dollar. THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM? I frankly have no idea which direction it will go after all the military occupation ends. One thing I can say for sure is that things are not well. Uganda’s exports are still too low compared to the imports and given that Uganda handed over its economy to follow China (Uganda is now a province of China) if China coughs, we will catch pneumonia. WAIT, I think that is already in progress.
The support for the shilling is now 3400 so we need to ensure that we do not crash through this level. The resistance is at 3300 and then 3250. We need to break through both of them before the shilling can do a decent match.
Coffee Arabica closed at $3.12 per kilo.
Coffee Robusta closed at $1.63 per kilo.
Gold closed at closed at $1270 per ounce after gaining $2.
Shanghai lost 58 points continuing on its chart pattern signaling that the $SSEC is going down. Since this index never bothered to cross above its 50 day MA, it was just a pump a dump. This thing is going to resume its downfall.
Hong Kong did not move even one point. The chart pattern for the $HKDOW says it is going to go down.
Tokyo gained 210 points and stopped shy of hitting its 50 day MA. The chart for the $NIKK shows that it is curving downwards. If it could only close above the 50 day MA on Friday, all would work out.
Frankfurt lost 225 points and crashed through its 50 day MA. This is the chart of the day. The $DAX had been hanging above its support level but today, it threw in the towel.
Paris lost 75 points but remained well above its 50 day MA and it had even risen higher but I suppose the sellers over whelmed the buyers. This chart is not too bad so there is hope for the $CAC if it does not listen to its cousin across the border.
London lost 110 points. It is still above the 50 day MA but things are not well in London. The $FTSE is going down.
Toronto lost 14 points. This is nothing for the $TSX. This one is approaching the 200 day MA so it is expected for it to make tiny moves.
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 points. Piece of cake. It actually nearly brushed its 200 day MA which sits at 17158 and it hit a high of 17130 closing at 16995. So very close. We need to break above that 200 MA. By the way, a loss of 5 points on the $INDU is a joke. This one can move hundreds and cause heart attacks on trading floors.
Standard and Poor did not move at even one point. What is interesting about this one is the $SPX despite tiny or no movements, it is forming a pattern that the markets are going to pull back a bit. It is still way above its 50 day MA and its fall will not be drastic because its support at the 50 day MA is still way below its current level.
NASDAQ lost 12 points. It is the chart that is the key. The $COMPQ fell towards its 50 day MA and bounced up to close above it but it is going to crash through that on Friday or next week.
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Martha Leah Nangalama
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