I was personally at Sheraton to watch the FDC candidate’s debate.
I observed certain things that signal the septic nature of the deteriorating wound in an organization.
Initially they had organized two separate rooms for it was anticipated and correctly so that the two parties wouldn’t seat together.
For public relations sake they changed that arrangement in my presence.
And trust “mbega” [spy], I had already captured that.
For those who cared to observe the way the audience clapped and cheered their candidates, the supporters of either party did not mix.
Dr Kiiza Besigye appeared to have had a huge presence of support in the hall. That is indeed symptomatic of a deeply divided organization.
The other issue behind the scenes is the Brig [now Lt Gen] Henry Tumukunde- Maj Gen Muntu money circulating through delegates.
In fact Muntu who is on leave as party president had summoned the Delegates Conference and FDC Electoral Commission objected to it.
Indications are the parties have already started to privately house the Delegates and or arranging to do so.
What I gather is delegates are entitled to transport and any other facilitation refund.
A candidate who privately facilitates the delegates save their allowance would have in effect bribed them.
This is the killer punch for the well-oiled candidate cash wise.
The Besigye team is indeed worried over the underground operations of Brig Tumukunde allegedly in favor of Muntu.
What are the larger stakes in the Muntu- Besigye contest?
In the brief chat with Muntu, he put it to me FDC has given what we ( in NRM for Muntu thinks I’m more NRM than him who was its head CMI and Army Commander) have failed to give.
I shot back at him that Mr Museveni, Dr Besigye and Mr Muntu are militants who in the current legal regime would pass for terrorists who captured State Power.
There is no democracy in their DNA.
That is the NRA disposition and was therefore sure that the said debate was a mere show.
In any case the 1995 Constituent Assembly was a product of Candidates debates.
The killer question from Museveni intelligence is what Dr Besigye declined to answer; whether in the event of being coroneted a flag bearer would proceed to be on the Sam Rwakojo-Gen Aronda Nyakairima-Brig Muhoozi Kainerugaba- Badru Kiggundu electoral commission.
Strategically, the Museveni NRM is desperate for a candidate from FDC to defeat the No Reform No election campaign.
Muntu is thus the NRM strategic ally. Muntu is reliable on failing Amama Mbabazi as TDA Flag bearer.
Dr Besigye would rather back Amama than back Muntu. In a favorable terrain, Besigye too wouldn’t back Amama.
Therefore Museveni is desperate for an FDC candidate who won’t back Amama and who won’t call for No Reform No Elections operations.
Amama too could opt for violence for No Reforms no Election front and that makes him a likely ally of Dr Besigye.
In a nutshell and to avoid a lengthy brief, the greater strategic interest of the NRA is to occupy, establish and sustain a Hima Tutsi dynasty in the Great Lakes region and through force.
All ranging from Gen Paul Kagame, [Lt Gen] Tumukunde, Gen Muntu etc have fought Gen Museveni and reconciled with him.
Of all the things Gen Muntu regrets is his failure to subdue Acholis and Bakonjo militarily.
In his mind, there is no room for a negotiated settlement if you are conscious threat to the said dynasty.
Im thus not surprised Gen Tinyefuza would walk his head high on Kampala streets.
There is a minimum ground on which the NRAs would reconcile and move on.
That explains of all places Col Samson Mande and Col Anthony Kyakabale would run from Gen Museveni to Gen Kagame for safety.
All the Baganda commanders of the likes of Capt Mutyaba etc who went with them are dead.
As long as Gen Kagame is at peace with Museveni, Muntu won’t throw a stone at Museveni and so is Museveni.
Gen doesnt know Museveni teargas and is not about to taste it in the near future.
Dr Besigye appears to be ignorant of this paradigm and I would not be surprised if he was wound up for he is capable of recklessly allying with any force that would threaten the said Hima-Tusti interest.
And all of the candidate gave that stupid lie. That they believe in a peaceful change. That violence would result in another Museveni.
A peaceful struggle against an armed and vicious politician in Museveni?
Give me a break.
You cant be honest and say that violence was justified against Dr Obote [Milton] who hadn’t killed, plundered and pillaged Uganda to the extent Museveni NRA has done and it (violence) isn’t justified against Museveni’s wicked grouping.
How justified was violence against UPC civilian politicians and you aver the NRM politicians should continue to plunder and terrorize the population with militias and Kibooko squads….?
You can only advance that reactionary line if you are a Museveni NRA agent.
To all of them, violence isn’t justified as long as they are not in the lead.
That is precisely the trait Museveni successfully freely gives, every situation must be all about the NRAs. FDC must be all about Muntu- Besigye.
They dominate ground where ever they are. And I heard Dr Besigye’s lamentations in relation to his poor judgment…When Dr Besigye saw Mr Museveni construct the NRA Mobile Brigade around Gen Salim Saleh Rufu Death).
When Dr Besigye saw Museveni construct SFC around his son Muhoozi, relatives friends and in-laws, When Dr Besigye saw Mr Museveni swallow shame ( Enshoni) and elevate his wife to a Cabinet Ministerial position, did Dr Besigye really believe all such were being in place to have Besigye as the anointed Museveni heir?
That Museveni would willingly and peacefully hand over power to Dr Besigye?
Mission Muntu appears a success, to seize and contain FDC.
It shouldn’t be surprising therefore that Muntu leaning MPs voted with Museveni NRM on the so called electoral reforms.
Charles Rwomushana, the author, is a former head of political intelligence desk at State House