Political analysts have reached a verdict, concluding that no Ugandan can replace President Yoweri Museveni as matters stand now.
George Mugisha Barenzi and David Ofwono, all political analysts were appearing on NBS TV Morning Breeze show recently.
“Museveni has proved that he can’t be replaced, as all potential successors have fallen by the way side,” Ofwono stated, quite clearly.
Ofwono said even Museveni’s former Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi, had no chance as far as 2016 elections are concerned.
He said for example, it was quite clear that Amama would abandon the NRM ticket to run as independent.
“We saw Amama’s declaration as independent coming.”
“Some people hold political positions within the NRM party and crossing over to another party would be violation of party policies.”
According to Ofwono, Amama still had a chance to stay put in the ruling party or otherwise with consequences.
“Amama had to make a choice to either stay in the NRM party or leave and now he has to prove to Ugandans that he made the right choice.”
He, however, pointed out that one can never predict Amama’s next move because “he is a very good organizer”.
As far as the ruling party is concerned, Ofwono said: “Museveni is NRM and NRM is president Museveni.”
He said if NRM mismanages the elections, then the opposition will have a bigger chance.
“The beauty of politics is that there is no fairness. It’s all about winning.”
Meanwhile, his colleague, Barenzi, said opposition will only sympathize with Amama as long as he helps them overcome Kaguta Museveni.
“The NRM is more comfortable dealing with Amama as an independent rather than as an NRM party member.”
Barenzi observed that even if Amama had played by the rules of the NRM party he wouldn’t have stood a chance.
“There is need now to change the guard in the NRM party and also governance within the country.”
According to a New Vision opinion poll, Museveni still leads his potential opponents with 71%.
NTV in another poll said Museveni would win with between 54% and 57% if elections were held today.
The NRM strongman has been going for four terms and is bent on securing a fifth term in 2016.