Museveni leads poll, NRM predicts 70% win



A new opinion poll suggests that President Yoweri Museveni would win 2016 elections with a comfortable margin if elections were held this December.

The poll was conducted by a Nairobi Kenya based Infotrak Research and Consulting firm.

According to Infotrak, Museveni leads in new poll with a clean 60 percent.

He is followed by Forum for Democratic Change candidate, Kizza Besigye, with a miserable 21 percent.

Besigye who is running the fourth time [2001, 2006, 2011 and now 2016] remains the strongest opposition politician.

Amama Mbabazi comes in third place with an insignificant 6 percent.

Standing for the first time, the former Prime Minister pulled supporters from both Besigye and Museveni.

The survey was commissioned by a Ugandan leading newspaper, Daily Monitor.

Infotrak partnered with Uganda’s Tango Consult to conduct the survey between December 5-8, 2015.

The poll gave People’s Development Party president, Abed Bwanika 0.4 percent, only female presidential candidate in the 2016 race, Faith Kyalya Maureen 0.4 percent, Prof Venansius Baryamureeba 0.3 percent, Maj Gen Benon Biraaro 0.1 percent and Joseph Mabirizi 0.1 percent.

NRM most popular party

According to the survey, six out of 10 respondents identified with the ruling National Resistance Movement party.

Of the 1,500 respndents, 57.1 percent said they were closest to the NRM party.

Only 14 percent identified with the opposition Forum For Democratic Change [FDC].

FDC has mostly male supporters with the biggest number concentrated in urban centres.

NRM is most popular party standing at 57.1% and FDC comes closest with a distant 14.1%.

Meanwhile, over half of the respondents were afraid of sharing their full details.

Opposition reacts

Opposition in response, dismissed the poll putting Museveni ahead of others as “fake”.

Go Forward spokesperson, Josephine Nkangi, said their candidate, Amama, is still strong.

She described the opinion poll as a sham based on unclear findings.

“We don’t agree that our candidate is 3rd. He is the first. We are fully aware of that.”

Nkangi based her assertion on Amama’s manifesto and the response they are getting from the people.

FDC and Democratic Party officials said if the poll was genuine, then Museveni would be in the third place.

However, Uganda People’s Congress [UPC] ousted president, Jimmy Akena, defended the poll saying NRM was still a strong party.

Opondo says Museveni will win with 70 percent

Government spokesperson, Ofwono Opondo, also defended the poll saying president Museveni was still a strong candidate.

He said the results clearly represent the views of the people on the ground.

He said NRM was still strong in the villages because the record of its performances speaks for itself.

“We are the only ones who have nominated candidates at all levels despite the setbacks we got in NRM primaries,” Opondo said.

Opondo who doubles as the NRM deputy spokesperson, said he was confident that his chairman, Museveni, will get 70 percent in 2016 elections.

“Thank you friends for believing in us. Those not with us yet, we encourage you to join us for a better Uganda,” the ruling party tweeted in response to the poll.

Makerere professor speaks

To the contrary, Prof Aaron Mukwaya, a senior lecturer of political science at Makerere University, while speaking to KFM radio, said opposition concerns about the poll were genuine.

He said the poll comes after electoral commission chairman, Badru Kiggundu, had made a personal attack on Besigye.

Kiggundu threatened to authorise military curtail Besigye for preaching defiance messages.

According to Prof Mukwaya, these personal and direct attacks by the EC boss on an opposition candidate leaves many unanswered questions.

“How confident are those people that you have asked questions and quote in your opinion poll,” he queried.


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