If 2016 presidential elections were held today, President Yoweri Museveni would win with a 55 percent, according to an opinion poll commissioned by NTV.
The poll shows that President Yoweri Museveni would win more than half the votes with something between 54% and 57% of the votes cast depending on who he stood against.
The opinion poll which was a corroboration between NTV Uganda & Uganda Governance Monitoring and Research World International was conducted in July 2015 with the aim of assessing the opinions and attitudes.
The Field work was conducted between 13th to 26th July 2015 and it covered 120 parishes, 72 sub counties and 48 districts with a total sample of 2320 people of 17 years and above.
The poll was carried out barely a month after former Premier Amama Mbabazi announced he would contest the presidency in 2016 and at the time the FDC flag-bearer race countrywide campaigns between Maj. Gen Mugisha Muntu and Dr Kizza Besigye had just started.
According to the results released by Patrick Wakida of Research World International, 61% believe that President Museveni cannot hand over power peacefully after losing an election.
Only 38% of NRM want change of leadership 59% do not want change.
Only 39% support joint opposition candidate. 38% against, 14% not sure.
Most respondents to poll are NRM members at 82%, FDC 13%, DP and UPC 1% each.
If Museveni doesn’t stand 39% of NRM would want Mbabazi to lead party. Janet Museveni gets 18% and Kadaga 11%.
Museveni is still a favourite if election were to be held today with 55%, Besigye 17%, Mbabazi 13%, others share remaining votes.
0ver 90% say they will vote in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
Although Museveni leads the poll, it shows a decline in support compared to a 68.3 per cent in 2011elections.
The same goes for Dr Kizza Besigye who would garner 17 per cent after getting 28% in 2011 elections.
Besigye still remains the preferred candidate within the Opposition, according to 88% of the respondents followed by Gen. Mugisha Muntu at 8%.
“You have majority saying they still want Besigye to be the flag-bearer and Mr Muntu with a certain percentage. They think Mr Besigye has more courage, is more resilient, he has been there for a long time, he is a fighter and when you look at Mr Muntu it is an issue of: ‘he is very honest, a good guy, I like him.’ Generally he is humble”, Wakida said.
The former NRM Secretary General, Amama Mbabazi would score 13 per cent coming in third position and putting him behind Besigye who remains a darling of the opposition.
Dr. Wakida further says the emergence of Mbabazi as a front runner in the elections could reduce Museveni’s chances of a straight win.
“We did this poll when there were many activities. Remember John Patrick Amama Mbabazi had just declared his candidature, Dr Kizza Besigye had just come back in the fray of politics of FDC and they were therefore outside campaigning. Those are very serious factors that you would consider. So for now the race is shaped,” Wakida is quoted by URN as saying.