Mon. Mar. 7, 2016 Uganda shilling and global market report


The Uganda shilling closed at 3370 on the US dollar, 4806 on the British pound, 3712 on the Euro, 33.27 on the Kenyan shilling and 2535 on the Canadian dollar.  The shilling is not moving much at all.  Maybe someone heard of the proposed bill to borrow $200 million to prop it up!

Coffee Arabica closed at $3.09 per kilo.

Coffee Robusta closed at $1.60 per kilo.

Gold closed at $1268 per ounce after rising $7.70.

Oil (brent crude) had a great day.  It gained $1.86 per barrel finishing the day at $40.76.  The chart looks wonderful and this is not even short selling.  It is going up and will likely pull back when it hits the 200 day moving average in the neighbourhood of $47.

Let me take you out of your comfort zone for a bit about oil.

Africa Oil is going to trim down operations in Kenya due to the low oil prices.  Africa Oil is a Canadian company which had partnered with Tullow Oil to pump oil out of Turkana.  They had 4 rigs running and shut down 3 ending 2015 with only one rig.  Mind you many wells and rigs in Canada and USA have also been shut down leading to layoffs of many employees.

This spells trouble for Uganda too because Tullow is a major player there.  Then of course we have Total whose CEO said last year that they do not see much recovery in the prices this year and only hope to break even in 2017 at their break even level of $60 a barrel.

When some Ugandans were jumping up with joy and saying `we do not need those Americans to come and steal our oil`, I kept telling people that no refinery, no oil.  No pipeline, no oil.  The refinery is still a work in progress.  The contract was awarded to a Russian company.  Last time I looked, that company was under sanctions and the Russian currency is now a rubble.

Naturally, CNOOC (China) could make this whole thing take off but was it not in January 2016 that their currency was devalued twice in the same month and their markets even had to close some 4 times to halt the sell off?  The Yuan suffered some bruises.  However, in a country like Uganda which is used to just getting money without reading the fine print, who knows what awaits the country when all the deals become disclosed?

Just so you know, NRM did not discover the oil.  It was known to exist even before we got independence.  Try Google.  However, since President Museveni decided to make it go commercial, give the man credit for it.  All he needs is a refinery now and I have no idea why Russia is not acting fast.  At this rate, the refinery will likely be ready in 2021/2022.  You will know who to vote for in 2021 because at least he needs some profit from this whole thing.

The pipeline is going to go via Tanzania instead of Kenya.  It is a none issue because when you calculate the kilometres, there is not much difference at all.

UCU was all over the news papers in Uganda this past week.  They had their first class of Masters graduates in Oil and Gas.  No idea what all the joy was about.  Where are these kids going to work?  Welcome to unemployment.



Shanghai rose 23 points but it is still in the body of a long red negative candle and until it closes above this red candle, we can only hope.  Furthermore, the $SSEC is still closing way below its 50 day moving average so we do have resistance above even the big bad candle.

Hong Kong lost only 2 points.  The $HKDOW has managed to close above its 50 day moving average over the last 4 trading days so today’s minor drop was nothing.  It is on its way up.

Tokyo lost 103 points and closed just under its 50 day moving average.  Oh it was so very close to breaking through that resistance but there was a bit of hesitation.  By the way, the $NIKK has a habit of gaining or losing anything from 500 – 900 points in one trading day.  The things heart attacks are made of.


Frankfurt lost 45 points, touched the support line (50 day moving average) and bounced off it so it did not crash through its support.  This is the fourth trading day that the $DAX has bounced off its support line and not crashed down through it so things look pretty positive.

Paris lost 14 points but it did not touch its support line.  In fact since the $CAC short through that 50 day moving average line, it has not returned.  Oh lalala, je t’aime Paris!

London lost 17 points but this chart is what traders die for.  The tiny pull back was nothing.  The $FTSE has stayed solidly above the 50 day moving average.  It is approaching the 200 day moving average so we might see some pull back this week or next week.

North America:

Toronto – wait.. why did I even move from that city?  The $TSX is on a big swing upwards and it is looking great. You will remember that it is oil heavy and oil is on a tear.

Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 67 points.  The $INDU is solidly above the 50 day moving average and creeping towards its resistance, the 200 moving day average.  It is a bull market (buyers more than sellers).

Standard and Poor gained 2 points.  The chart looks good but it says there will be a slight pull back.  It is approaching its 200 day moving average which tends to be a big resistance for the $SPX.

NASDAQ fell 9 points and it is still above its support of the 50 day moving average.  However, its chart shows that it is going to curve downwards perhaps to touch the same support before it continues.  This will depend on the S&P usually because the Nas is a follower, never a leader.  Hurry up and buy your mothers and wives some gadgets because that will help the tech heavy Nasdaq to keep moving up.

Global News:  Please check the World News section on The Insider.

Martha Leah Nangalama

Moncton, Canada

Whatsap +15068716371

The writer has an IT and business background.  All the opinions are mine and mine alone.

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