The Uganda shilling closed at 3468 on the US dollar, 5004 on the British pound, 3777 on the Euro, 34 on the Kenya shilling and 2487 on the Canadian dollar. I love this play. The shilling is holding its ground. It would be nice if the shilling could edge up a little bit and hit that resistance of now 3400 on the US dollar. If it breaks through, we will have a stronger shilling. Watching this is also a reminder that 3500 is the support and should we fall through it, I fear for that banana republic’s currency.
On currency for Uganda, people in the diaspora love it when your currency crashes. Unfortunately, this is awful for importers as you have to spend more money to import your bichupuli and used underwears.
Coffee Arabica – no change
Coffee Robusta – no change
These type of commodities tend to move a little slower but by mid week we will see some change which might not even be significant given that most prices are really month end for coffee.
Gold is moving up very slowly and not with much noise at all. It closed at $1128 per ounce. This thing was trading close to only $1000 some 4 months ago. The move is still not aggressive so investors are not really flying into Gold to be safe.
Oil – fell by a bit over $2 per barrel. Can you blame the traders? If I had picked it up at $27.55 I would also be taking my money out when it hit $35 and do remember that on Friday it touched $36 a barrel. This is where profit taking comes in. Say you buy 1000 shares of oil at $28. As soon as it goes up $2 a barrel (in my opinion), dump 500 shares and hold onto the next 500 shares to ride the wave. Imagine if I dumped all my 1000 shares as soon as it rose $2, I would have missed out on the ride to $36. Reverse this. What if it pulled back down after hitting $30, I would not have cried. Today’s chart. This is risk analysis and mitigation. Never be too sure because you cannot predict the madness of the masses.
Shanghai – WHY? We were having a party but why do you have to go and dampen it? It fell 1.78% (49 points) and finished at 2689. The Shanghai chart is one of those ones you look at and you say “pass me another coffee”. It is not decisive at all and given how much China controls the global economy now, one has to wonder. What happened?
Hong Kong is doing this thing I have not seen in 18yrs looking at the markets. It opens up, falls, then recovers and then closes up at the same level as the price of the last trading day. No change and I am not even joking. Wait, I am learning to love 0.00. No news is good news. Always.
Tokyo – oh I love Tokyo. Must be the sushi though. This index is heading places and hopefully it can tell its cousin in Shanghai to get with the system. Wait, might be related to that reverse interest rate Japan put out last week. It rose 1.98% (347 points) closing at 17865.
Frankfurt fell a tiny bit by only 40 points but the chart says good things are to come.
Paris also fell a bit by 25 points. Nothing to write home about.
London fell a tinny winy bit by 24 points. The FTSE chart looks very lovable. The small falls today are really mostly due to profit taking.
Toronto did pretty good given the profit taking on oil. It only lost 148 points and closed at 12674.
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost only 17 points and the chart makes me smile. The Dow is not going to fall anymore. The minor fall was wrapped up in the body of last Friday’s trading which gave us a very strong signal of better things to come.
Standard and Poor only fell 2 points and remember this is really likely related to profit taking. Let me take a picture of this chart and put it beside my desk. It is that encouraging.
NASDAQ rose by 6 points. I told you people the Nasdaq is a follower of the others so it is holding its place like that one cousin we kind of just put up with for Christmas holidays.
It turns out that the global markets are turning from bearish (selling) to bullish (buying). I would still be very carefully in these markets because anything can happen and turn the tide against you. Long term investors know to use long term charts and read widely. Short term traders know that the 1-5 minute chart is not as good as the hourly or daily or weekly. Good luck people. Never use money meant for bills to play the markets no matter how confident you may feel.
Martha Leah Nangalama
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The writer is an IT analyst for an Oil company and has many years trading stocks, options and forex.
All my opinions are mine and mine alone. They do not reflect on my employer or any organisation I am associated with.