A new poll suggests that FDC politician, Kizza Besigye, would defeat President Yoweri Museveni if presidential elections were conducted today.
Days back, the country’s main leading daily newspaper, New Vision, published a poll that indicated Museveni was leading other possible presidential candidates with a greater margin.
On Monday morning, KFM radio, part of Monitor Publications Limited, conducted a poll asking listeners who they would vote if Museveni was standing against Besigye and former Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi.
“We are conducting an opinion poll on D’mighty breakfast. Who of these three would you vote for as President of Uganda? (1) Amama Mbabazi, (2) Gen Kaguta Yoweri Museveni (3) Rtd. Col. Kiiza Besigye,” was the question posted on their social media, Facebook page.
Listeners voted through Facebook, Sms and phone calls.
The session ends at 6pm today, but so far, according to preliminary results, Besigye is leading the poll with 326 votes (53.0%).
He is followed by Amama with 118 votes (19.2%) and then Museveni follows in third and last position with 114 votes (18.5%).
A total of 614 people voted of which 56 votes (9.2%) were invalid.
However, some observers noted that this poll doesn’t reflect the general picture upcountry since the old and illiterate do not use social media platforms like Facebook.
Others argue that those who voted on radio may not even be registered as voters and may not take part in 2016 elections as opposed to what the New Vision poll suggested.
The New Vision poll
The Vision Group research team conducted an opinion poll between June 12 and June 20, 2015 covering 6,626 households countrywide and results of the poll show that 71.7% of Ugandans interviewed would vote for Museveni in the February 2016 presidential elections.
Besigye came in second with 9.2%, while Mbabazi was third with 4.2% of the poll results.
FDC leader Mugisha Muntu got 2.1%, followed by Democratic Party (DP) president Norbert Mao with 1.3%. FDC stalwart Nandala Mafabi got 1.1% and former vice-president Gilbert Bukenya 0.5%.
Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) President-elect, Jimmy Akena performed better than his arch-rival Olara Otunnu with 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.
The poll results show that Museveni’s highest support is in the countryside, where 73.5% of respondents said they would vote for him, compared to 68.5% of urban voters.
Museveni’s immediate runners-up Besigye and Mbabazi have their largest share of voters in urban areas, reported New Vision.
Besigye had a 10.6% vote in urban areas and 8.4% in rural areas, while Mbabazi had 3.8% and 4.8% from rural and urban voters, respectively.
Among the sampled districts, Museveni’s biggest vote came from Kaberamaido district, in eastern Uganda, where 93.2% said they would vote for him in next year’s elections, while he had his least support in Kasese, with 49.7%.
Besigye got the highest vote in Kasese with 28.7%, while his least vote was from Budaka with 1%. Mbabazi’s highest support is from his home district of Kanungu (23%), but he got zero in Zombo, Nebbi, Nakaseke and Apac districts.
Muntu’s stronghold, according to the poll, is Kabale district (11.3%). He did not get any undecided votes in West Nile. His highest score was in western Uganda with 3.7%.
He got no vote in Zombo, Soroti, Nebbi, Mayuge, Lira, Kumi, Kaberamaido and Agago districts.
Mao’s highest vote was from his home district of Gulu, while Akena wais more popular in Apac, Kadaga in Kamuli, Mafabi in Mbale, Bukenya in Lwengo and Lukwago in Kayunga.
Museveni is still the leading candidate in Kampala with 63.9%, followed by Besigye (10.2%), Mbabazi (5.3%), Muntu (3.5%) and Lukwago (0.7%).
A total of 8.2% of voters in Kampala are would vote for him, compared to 68.5% of urban voters.
The poll was, however, dismissed by many as a government advert since it was made by a state newspaper.
Charles Rwomushana, a former head of political intelligence desk in State House said while “Besigye people manipulate photographs to make crowds of people look very mammoth, President Museveni people manufactured an opinion poll where Museveni is leading by 71%.”
He just threw the newspaper with the same results to the nearest dustbin.